COMMENTARY: If you've been watching the Republican gubernatorial primary, you know last week's Rasmussen poll of likely primary voters was framed as a boost for Governor Rick Perry and insurgent Debra Medina. It was all at the expense of Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Governor Perry widened his lead over Senator Hutchison from 10 to 14 points.

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According to Rasmussen, Perry's numbers have not moved - frozen at 43 percent - in both January and February. Absolutely all of the movement has been between Senator Hutchison and Mrs. Medina. The senator dropped by four, the former Wharton County Republican chair gained by four.

And very significantly, 11 percent had not made up their mind in January and 11 percent still had still not made up their mind a month later.

So here is my takeaway from the poll. Combining Hutchison and Medina, the anti-Perry vote is 46 percent, three points more than Gov. Perry.

The governor's hope is that his rally with Tea Party icons Sarah Palin and Ted Nugent last weekend will lure voters from Debra Medina and begin to move the undecided. At the very least, it will capture their attention.

But while she is a rock star among conservative Republicans, Governor Palin is often an anathema to independents and Democrats.

So, here is my bet. Governor Perry walks into a runoff with Senator Hutchison. The Governor has a better organization and better prospects to raise money for the thirty-day blitz and his approval numbers have improved. But Mrs. Medina's campaign has been relentlessly critical of Mr. Perry. Today, it seems unlikely that she would throw her support his way.

Her voters may stay home in a runoff, but I doubt it. The Medina voters are angry over the Trans Texas Corridor, mandated HPV vaccines and taxes. They have heard Mr. Perry's anti-Washington drumbeat for months and still want to fire him.

Throw in one more unknown. Rasmussen tests likely primary voters. But this has been an exciting primary. Independents, November Republicans and Democrats are not likely primary voters, but still have plenty of time to decide to jump in. If history is any guide, both Perry and Hutchison are saving their best attacks on each other for the final days.

Barring a scandal, I always handicap for the incumbent. But with a runoff in the making in a time of anti-incumbent sentiment, we still have a long way to go.